market insights
March 28h, 2024
yield curve spread 10y-2y
Recession is coming, long and variable lags, but not showing up in the data yet
10-year Treasury
Long term rates rising - higher real rates, but also rising inflation expectations
2-Year Treasury
2Y yields rising - the Fed unable to cut due to "sticky" inflation
s&p 500
The uptrend is broken - higher rates, but big-tech earnings will be important
the euro
Euro falling, the ECB to cut before the Fed
gold
Gold rising, geopolitics, possible inflation fears, but ignoring rising real rates
crude oil
Oil rising, it's mostly the geopolitics, but also OPEC+ supply cuts and strong US economy
copper
Copper rising, strong US economy, China trying to stimulate, electrifiction
macrotheme capital management LLC
